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01/15/12--12:59: Fallen dictators and their doppelgangers (chan 3123589)



What happened to the lookalikes of the many world leaders who died or were deposed over the past 12 months – from Kim Jong-il to Muammar Gaddafi?

When Kim Jong-il died, North Korean soldiers fell to their knees and cried. Children sobbed, reported the Chinese state news agency, and some women even fainted. But few were sadder than South Korean shopkeeper Kim Young-sik, who told reporters: "I feel very empty, as if a part of me died."

Then again, Kim is a special case. With his large paunch, jowly face and oversized glasses, Kim had for many years moonlighted as the world's foremost Kim Jong-il impersonator. His looks took him to the middle east, where he performed alongside the spit of Vladimir Putin in a chocolate advert; Japan, for a part in a TV series; and the film sets of South Korea, where he had roles in both features and music videos. "Sometimes," he confided in 2006, "I feel like I am Kim Jong-il."

But Kim now fears his second career might have reached an abrupt end. "People try to comfort me, saying some figures are more famous when they're dead," he laments. "But I don't think it will be the case with Kim."

Is he right? What happens to other impersonators once their lookalikes cop it? After all, in Sacha Baron Cohen's forthcoming film The Dictator, it's the lookalike who ends up leading the country after the dictator flees to America. So is this game over, or could it be the profile boost Kim secretly always hoped for?

Prospects are certainly bleak for Anthony Pena, who impersonated Muammar Gaddafi on Conan O'Brien's eponymous cable talkshow. "Good luck for the future," were O'Brien's last words to Pena as he left the show following Gaddafi's death in October. Seconds later, Pena was himself "dead" – killed off by the show's producers in a mock execution by a gun-toting crew member who had confused him for the real thing. Or so the script went.

But all is not lost, says Francesca MacDuff-Varley, who runs A-List Lookalikes, a British doubles agency. "Political lookalikes often get more work in historical reenactments after the politician's death," she argues. "When Osama bin Laden died, for example, there was more interest in Osama doubles."

In the entertainment industry, she also notes, superstars' lookalikes tend to get more work after their doppelganger's death. "If they're already an icon, death can make them bigger," says MacDuff-Varley, citing Michael Jackson and Amy Winehouse as recent examples. "There's usually a lull of about six months, to allow for a grieving period. And then it all takes off again."

Kim could also take heart from 2011's Egyptian revolution, which seemed to spark a renaissance in Hosni Mubarak impersonations. Ayman Hosni achieved YouTube fame – and an appearance on Egyptian TV – with his series of videos mimicking the fallen dictator. In June, actor Medhat Aboul Ezz was cast as Mubarak in a film dramatising his last days in power, a role Aboul Ezz says he would not have dared take on before the revolution. Comedian and serial impersonator Mahmoud Azab announced a new show that will mimic members of Mubarak's family and administration– though not the dictator himself.

If all else fails, Kim could always write a book about his years as a dictator's double. It is a tactic perfected by Latif Yahia, former body double to Uday Hussein, son of Saddam. Yahia wrote two books: I Was Saddam's Son, and The Devil's Double – the last of which was turned into a 2011 film of the same name, starring Dominic Cooper. Never mind that Kim never technically worked for his lookalike – two reporters have questioned Yahia's claims. They say many of his accounts could not be verified.

Other dictators' doppelgangers have faced more believable dangers. In 2004, 47-year-old Leonel Arias was wearing an Bin Laden mask in his hometown in Costa Rica when a taxi driver leapt out of his car and shot him twice in the stomach. He thought Arias was a would-be carjacker.

Last October, an Egyptian called Mohamed Bishr was bundled into the back of a van by three porn directors who offered him more than £200,000 to take part in a Saddam-themed sex video. When he refused, Bishr was thrown from the moving vehicle, and ended up in hospital. Later, the film-makers threatened to kidnap him again if he didn't change his mind.

Australian comic Chas Licciardello was a more willing lookalike – but his antics scarcely ended better. In 2007, he donned a Bin Laden-style beard, hired a motorcade, and drove through police checkpoints to arrive at the Sydney hotel that was playing host to then-US president George Bush. Police weren't amused and arrested Licciardello, along with 10 other members of his entourage. "I don't see a funny side," police minister David Campbell later said. "I don't see a funny side at all."

• Osama bin Laden
• Vladimir Putin
• Hosni Mubarak
• Kim Jong-il
• Muammar Gaddafi

Patrick Kingsley




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01/17/12--07:09: Hosni Mubarak arrives at Cairo court in ambulance - video (chan 3123589)

Hosni Mubarak arrives at a Cairo court in an ambulance. He was wheeled in to the court on a hospital gurney







01/17/12--10:17: Egypt's Mubarak is no tyrant, defence tells court (chan 3123589)



Hosni Mubarak's defence lawyers say former president never tried to crush Egyptian protesters, but instead supported their demands

For the past five months, the elderly man behind bars at New Cairo's police academy has had to sit – or lie horizontal – as prosecutors steadily built their case against him, culminating in a dramatic demand that he be put to death by the state.

"Integrity and transparency went down the drain [because] the defendant preferred his personal interests to those of the public," concluded lead counsel Mostafa Suleiman earlier this month, speaking with his back to the despot who held Egypt in an iron grip for 30 years.

"He deserves to end up with humiliation and indignity, from the presidential palace to the defendant's cage, and then get the harshest penalty."

On Tuesday, Hosni Mubarak's fightback began. To cheers from his team of volunteer lawyers, the 83-year-old's attorney said the image of a corrupt, bloodthirsty tyrant painted by the prosecution bore no relation to the honest, noble and above all patriotic president stretched out before them, now clad in prison overalls and following proceedings wordlessly from within a secure metal cage.

Instead, Farid el-Deeb painted an astonishing portrait of a leader who was "clean and could say no wrong", and lambasted his courtroom adversaries for besmirching Mubarak's family with "libel and slander".

The prosecution's arguments were speculation, and appealed more to public sentiment than the rule of law, insisted El-Deeb, as he laid out a seven-point defence of his client and declared the toppled dictator to be a closet revolutionary.

"When Mubarak learned about the protesters, he wanted to respond to their demands immediately, all within the law," said El-Deeb.

"But he never attempted to crush the protests. On the contrary, he supported the protesters' demands … There is no case against Mubarak."

Few observers will give any credence to the idea that Mubarak – who used his vast security apparatus to brutally repress political dissent for a generation – was secretly aligned with those who sought to overthrow him.

But questions over the prosecution case are mounting, and they strike at the heart of what the "trial of the century" means to Egypt and the wider Arab world.

Mubarak, his two sons Gamal and Alaa, his former interior minister, Habib al-Adly, and six senior police officers are all in the dock, facing a range of charges. Mubarak's one-time business associate, Hussein Salem, is being tried in absentia.

The ex-president stands accused of economic fraud and exploiting his position for personal enrichment, but the most serious charge against him is that of conspiring in the killing of protesters who were shot by police as the anti-regime uprising gathered pace in late January 2011.

Legal experts say there are three levels at which Mubarak could be found guilty. If the prosecution can prove that security forces were firing live ammunition at demonstrators then the former leader, who as president had a constitutional duty to protect the Egyptian people, could potentially receive a sentence of up to 10 years' jail even if he was unaware of the situation.

If prosecutors can go further and establish that Mubarak did know about the killings and yet did nothing to stop them, he would be guilty of conspiracy in the murders and consequently face up to 25 years.

Finally, if that conspiracy to murder can be shown to be premeditated – in other words, if Mubarak himself gave the order – then under Egyptian law his crime may warrant the death penalty.

Through the use of autopsy reports, video evidence and witness testimony, prosecution lawyers are confident they have proved live rounds were deployed by police against protesters.

The second stage – establishing Mubarak's knowledge of these killings – has been trickier, though statements from officials declaring that they heard Adly authorising the use of "all means necessary" to stamp out the uprising, plus testimony from post-Mubarak interior ministers that such an order could only come from the head of state, and Adly's own insistence that he briefed the president on the unfolding security crisis, have all been used to substantiate the prosecution case. Evidence that Mubarak himself ordered the killings remains largely circumstantial though, leaving some to conclude that the death penalty is unlikely to be applied.

Both lawyers and human rights monitors say they are happy with the procedural fairness of the trial, with few complaints made against Judge Ahmed Refaat, who has promised to deliver a verdict soon after the defence rests in mid-February.

"This trial has been conducted in a normal and professional way in accordance with Egyptian law," Khaled Abu Bakr, a legal representative for some of the victim's families, told the Guardian. "We now have to wait for the decision of the court and when it comes we must respect it."

But although the conduct of the case is not being called into question, its wider context certainly is. From the beginning prosecutors have struggled with the absence of key evidence, including CCTV footage from cameras stationed around Tahrir Square and crucial video and audio recordings from the central security operations room. And in his closing statement Mostafa Suleiman bemoaned the lack of co-operation from Egypt's interior ministry and the intelligence services. Government agencies have refused to hand over critical material that could help to convict Mubarak; a demonstration, according to Abu Bakr, of just how far the former dictator's regime remains entrenched in the corridors of power.

"What this case is exposing is the culture of official impunity and the fragility of accountability in Egypt," said Heba Morayef, a Cairo-based researcher for Human Rights Watch. "The prosecutor has the right to order other government agencies to deliver information, and to summon officials from those agencies if they fail to co-operate. And if the prosecutor was strong and had been empowered by the revolution then he would have gone after this evidence and got it, but that hasn't happened.

"So although the trial has been conducted with procedural fairness, and although it has the symbolic value of destroying the notion that a head of state enjoys legal immunity, the substance of the court case has been weak," she added. "The abuses of Mubarak's security apparatus have not been exposed by the prosecutor; it's partly about lack of capacity but it's also about lack of political will and, if we're frank, lack of political power."

Abu Bakr called this a "mentality" problem, one that wouldn't be solved until the body of the old regime was severed, as well as the head.

The upshot has been an over-reliance by the prosecution on emotive appeals regarding Mubarak's poisonous legacy to the country he ruled, instead of the careful presentation of concrete legal evidence to prove his guilt. Human rights figureheads, such as Gamal Eid, have accused the prosecution of placing political sentiment above the rule of law; ironically, the trial's most salient feature could be that it ends up exemplifying the judicial system that was built up under three decades of Mubarak's tyranny, where sensitive criminal cases were often decided according to political expediency, rather than on legal evidence.

But if Mubarak is convicted next month then, for the relatives of those who lost their lives at the hands of this elderly man's footsoldiers, such nuances will feel largely irrelevant. "Every day they are left swinging wildly between optimism and pessimism, as the testimony lurches one way and then another," said Hoda Nasrallah, another prosecution lawyer. "They desperately want justice – and there will be outrage not just from them but from the whole of Egyptian society if that justice isn't delivered."

• Hosni Mubarak
• Egypt
• Middle East and North Africa
• Africa
• Protest

Jack Shenker




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01/19/12--08:50: Syria, Egypt and Middle East unrest - Thursday 19 January (chan 3123589)



• Syria: Arab League mission 'extended to Sunday'
• League 'may extend it another month' – official
• Bahrain: Activists protest at air show
• Egypt: Mubarak should be tried by military tribunal – lawyer
• Read a summary of today's key events

8.55am: Welcome to Middle East Live.

Syria

• The first Arab leader to call for Bashar al-Assad to step down has said that change in Syria will not happen soon. Jordan's King Abdullah told CNN:

I don't see Syria going through many changes. I think what you're seeing in Syria today, you will continue to see for a while longer. It's a very complicated puzzle and there is no simple solution. If you can imagine Iraq being a simple solution to move Iraq into the light a couple of years ago and it's different in Libya, so it has everybody stumped and I don't think anybody has a clear answer on what to do about Syria.

• Syrian forces have pulled back from the rebel-held town of Zabadani near Lebanon after an agreement with insurgents to end fighting, a senior opposition leader in contact with residents has told Reuters. Dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles that had been surrounding the town, 30 km (19 miles) northwest of Damascus, pulled back on Wednesday night to military garrisons 8 km (5 miles) away, and food and basic supplies have started reaching the town, Kamal al-Labwani told Reuters. There were reports on Wednesday that the truce had broken down.

• A Syrian newspaper has accused Qatar of funding terrorists in the country. The newspaper claimed that Qatar, which has suggested sending pan-Arab forces to the embattled country, is continuing the "negative role it has filled from the start of the current crisis in Syria", the Israeli website Arutz Sheva reported. Qatar sent troops into Libya to help topple Gaddafi and is also viewed as one of the most hawkish Arab countries with respect to Syria.

• US officials claim to have uncovered an effort by Iran to help Syria mask its oil exports and evade a US and European embargo, the Wall Street Journal reports. It said:


American officials investigating the Iranian operation said it is designed to quietly ship Syrian crude oil to Iran, where it can be sold on the international market, with revenue going back to Damascus.

Transit records document one such shipment, involving more than 91,000 metric tons of crude, which took place last month.

Egypt

• The Muslim Brotherhood's chairman, Mohamed Badie, met the US ambassador to Egypt, Anne Patterson, on Wednesday. He said the popularity of the United States was diminishing because of US support for dictators. Patterson admitted that the US had made "some mistakes" and expressed its intent to learn from them, al-Masry al-Youm reported.

• Egypt's tourism minister says revenues from the vital tourism sector fell by nearly 30% in 2011 compared to the previous year, amid the unrest stemming from the mass uprising that ousted former president Hosni Mubarak. The state-run Al-Ahram on Thursday quoted tourism minister Mounir Abdel-Nour as saying that the number of tourists coming to Egypt last year dropped by over 33%, to 9.8 million, compared to 14.7 million in 2010. Tourism revenues for 2011 came in at $8.8bn versus $12.5bn in 2010. Egypt has asked the International Monetary Fund for a $3.2bn loan to help bridge a burgeoning deficit.

Iran

• At least three prominent journalists have been arrested in Iran in a fresh crackdown on press freedom ahead of the country's parliamentary elections in March. Two journalists, Marzieh Rasouli and Parastoo Dokouhaki, and photojournalist Sahamoddin Bourghani were arrested separately by officials believed to be from the Iranian security services.

9.18am: With the ceasefire in Zabadani, after days of shelling locals have returned to the streets. This video shows a demonstration that reportedly took place last night.

US-based Syrian activist Ammar Abdulhamid says the truce is a significant development that shows "all that Syrian rebels need at this stage is some support, and they can take care of the business of bringing down the Assad regime on their own". He writes:


Locals say the terms were negotiated by officers taking their orders from Assef Chawkat, Assad's brother-in-law and the man believed to be responsible for orchestrating all current sweep operations in the country. The negotiations happened through the auspices of local dignitaries, that is, there were no direct meetings between defectors and loyalists. The occasional pounding that took place earlier on Wednesday came to a quick halt and the pullout to points further outside the town seems to have proceeded as agreed.

Still, there are legitimate concerns that the ceasefire in Zabadani was made because the regime intends on carrying out major sweep operations in the restive region of Eastern Ghoutah to the East of Damascus. But even if this were the case, the fact that the regime needed to negotiate a ceasefire in order to ready itself for the alleged operations, is a major indication of how embattled its troops are at this stage.

9.49am: A prominent Egyptian activist was attacked by unidentified assailants on Wednesday night, AP reports. A small crowd set upon Nawarah Negm as she left work in Cairo's Nileside headquarters of state television and radio.

Video shows her being struck by assailants who also hurl abuse at her:

Negm is the daughter of Ahmed Fuad Negm, Egypt's best known satirical poet and a longtime critic of ousted leader Hosni Mubarak. She was a key figure in the uprising that forced Mubarak to step down last February.

In an interview with al-Jazeera the day after the first demonstrations, she warned that thousands would return to the streets until Mubarak got the message.

Negm was questioned by prosecutors this week over her alleged role in deadly clashes last month between troops and protesters in Cairo.

10.10am: The head of Arab League observers will submit the group's report on their heavily criticised mission in Syria today, the Daily Star of Lebanon reports.

The Arab bloc's deputy leader, Ahmed Ben Helli, is quoted as saying:

We are at a turning point as the Arab observer mission's report will be presented on Thursday, marking a month since the protocol was signed ...The report will be decisive.

The mission's initial one-month mandate agreed with Damascus expires today. It has been blighted by criticism and the resignation of one member, Anwar Malek, who described it as a farce, powerless to prevent "multiple crimes against humanity".

On Wednesday, a coalition of 140 human rights organisations working in Arab countries urged the Arab League to withdraw its monitors from Syria and to call for the UN to take action to stop the violence.

10.30am: There has been plenty of discussion recently about the rights and wrongs of foreign intervention in Syria but Syrian blogger Maysaloon argues it is a "moot point".

The so-called Free Syrian army has been mounting bolder attacks, and has been maintaining a stout defence in Homs, the heartland of the Syrian revolution, as well as in the Zabadani and Madaya suburbs of Damascus more recently. It's not clear how much longer they can maintain this, but I think the steady trickle of defections that are happening could start turning into an avalanche if this situation continues. On another front, the Syrian currency has recently sunk to a jaw-dropping low of 70.5 Syrian pounds to the dollar. Any more than that and the Syrian economy will start to go into free-fall.

I think all this discussion and condemnation of international intevention is a moot point. If this situation continues the way it is any longer, without one side trying to end the stalemate in its favour, then this regime could implode. Hezbullah daren't get itself embroiled into a Syrian civil war and stretch itself with Israel lurking just south of the border, and Iran, with all its enthusiasm, is too far from Syria to do anything more than token support and advice. We're not going to see divisions of the Quds brigade airlifted to Damascus just to prop up Assad, though we could start seeing a bigger spurt of suicide bombings, explosions and assassinations.

Still, the country is crumbling under the political crisis, and whilst Assad is preparing to dig himself deeply for a long fight, he might find himself a prisoner in his own palace, as he faces not just defected Syrian soldiers, but the economic influence of the wealthy, bourgeois, Syrian diaspora who are enthusiastically supporting the Syrian revolution.

10.40am: Staying on the subject of foreign intervention in Syria, the Arabist's Issandr el Amrani says he is opposed to it but that it is inevitable - the question is who will do it.

The conflict is likely to perdure and will probably draw in its neighbours – Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel. In other words, it is likely to internationalise. These countries (and in the case of Lebanon and Iraq, others working through them) may want to back a particular faction, or quarantine the conflict (which will have an impact on the belligerents, of course).

What's more, fighters from those countries may very well want to join one side or the other (there have already been rumors of Iranians joining in on the regime side). In other words, foreign intervention will be a reality sooner or later. I'd rather it'd be done by Syria's neighbors then the west, even if that means it will be bloodier or even if it leads to Assad staying in power. Quite simply, it's none of our business.

10.58am: The Syrian Revolution General Commission has named eight people it says have been killed by security forces today.

It says one of them was M'an Hmaid Al-Hasan, who it claims was arrested on Wednesday in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor before his dead body was returned today. The SRGC's report cannot be independently verified.

Many of the deaths reported recently have been in Homs. This video shows a civilian being removed from the rubble of a house that was purportedly bombed in BabHoud, in Homs.

Initial attempts to revive him appear unsuccessful.

11.48am: In the wake of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry's (BICI) report (pdf), the Bahraini regime has failed to address the roots of the kingdom's political and economic inequalities, two researchers say in a lengthy analysis on Open Democracy.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Elham Fakhro write that the result has been "the empowerment of radical voices across the political spectrum and the marginalisation of Bahrain's political middle ground".

Elements of the opposition are growing more violent, while extremist groups calling on the regime to crush the opposition once and for all have intensified in recent weeks. Competing narratives have diverged sharply since BICI, illustrating the chasm that has opened up where the moderate middle used to be ...

In the emotive run-up to the anniversary of February 14, the danger for both the regime and the 'established opposition' is that the rug is pulled out from under them by more radical groups on all sides of the political spectrum ...

For its part, the government has hardly helped itself by its pursuit of largely-symbolic gestures even as the security crackdown shows no sign of ending. Continuous announcements of impending reforms have yet to translate into significant action to redress the abuses of power and responsibility identified by BICI …

The longer the old elite remains untouched by high-level calls to account for the abuses of power over the past year, the harder it will be to convince sceptics of the government's good faith. Calls to violence by opposition and regime hardliners alike make any solution more difficult, without a decisive power-shift towards moderate elements. For these reasons, the anniversary of Bahrain's February 14 uprising is fraught with dangers as it could as easily signal the next phase of the confrontation as it could the resolution of the present one.

12.00pm: The criminal trial of the ousted Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak for alleged collusion in the killing of more than 800 protesters is illegal as he should be tried by a military tribunal, his lawyer has told a court in Cairo, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reports.

Farid al-Deeb claimed that Mubarak is still an honorary chief of the air force, which he commanded for six years in the 1970s.

Mubarak would presumably hope for an easier time in a military tribunal. His former interior minster, Habib el-Adly, also on trial, has certainly enjoyed warm relations with the soldiers at the courthouse.

12.57pm: Bahraini activists say demonstrators have been burning tyres in a protest intended to coincide with the second Bahrain International Air Show.

They say they were forbidden to protest in front of the event so have made their point as best they can.

Pictures posted online show black smoke in the sky.

Michael Stephens, researcher at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, told Airwise the air show was unlikely to provide the hope-for boost to Bahrain:

The ongoing political problems in Bahrain mean that the show is unlikely to be as successful as the Bahrainis would like it to be. Bahrain relies on its reputation as a good place to do business to survive - they do not have much oil or material resources. The air show needs to be a success for them to revive their international reputation.

1.33pm: The Local Coordination Committees report, a Syrian activist group, five people killed in Hama today and have posted a video purporting to be of "heavy gunfire by the regime's army" in the city.

One of those killed was a military brigadier, named as Adel Moustapha, who was killed by soldiers who refused his orders to shoot at civilians in the Bab Qilbi area. "The brigadier had previously overseen many killing and arrest operations," the LCCs report.

An earlier post said a number of people were wounded by "random gunfire" in the Jarajmeh area of the city, and another reported a "massive explosion" in Alamin Street.

The LCCs also report gunfire at mourners at the Falah Mosque, and the sealing off of roads to Salmiuyeh and Homs. About two hours ago they reported "inspections ... taking place at most of the security checkpoints spread all over the city and the surrounding areas".

The body of a young man was found in the Damascus suburb of Douma, according the LCCs. "The body bore signs of torture." A man called Ziad Saada was also reported killed.

The LCCs report renewed clashes between the Free Syrian Army and the regime army in Daeel, Daraa. The city has been sealed off, they say. Two soldiers were killed while defecting; a captain from the regime army was also killed.

In Qamishly, the LCCs report that Marwan Moustapha Antar, an army private, was killed by security force gunfire. It is unclear whether he had defected.

The LCCs posted a video purporting to be of shooting at Ryad Salheen mosque in Homs (see below).

Ma'aroof Hussain Al-Nakadli was shot dead while driving his taxi car though Al-Jajeh checkpoint in the city, the LCCs report.

In Ibleen, Idlib, 21 soldiers defected, taking all their military equipment with them, "at the town's checkpoint at dawn this morning". Mohammad Hashem Al-Abdullah was killed by security force gunfire there.

In Jabal Al-Zawiyah in Idlib four men were killed by security forces as they drove a car under the Basanqol bridge.

In Bayda, Banyas, the LCCs report a demonstration in front of security forces. "Participants are awaiting the arrival of the Arab League observers," they say.

In Deir Ezzor, the body of Ma'an al-Humaidi Al-Hassan Al-Hafal was found with a bullet in the head; he was injured in yesterday's demonstrations and arrested.

Funeral processions, protests around the country, and clashes between students and shabiha ("ghost") militia at Aleppo University were also reported by the LCCs.

This map shows where many of those places are.

It is hard for foreign journalists to get permission to report from Syria and the LCCs' reports cannot be properly verified.

1.52pm: Here is a summary of the day's key events so far.


Syria

• Over a dozen people have been killed as clashes between the regime's security forces and opposition activists and army defectors continue (see 1.33pm). A military brigadier, named as Adel Moustapha, was killed by soldiers who refused his orders to shoot at civilians in Hama, the Local Coordination Committees, an activist group, report.

• The head of Arab League observers will submit the group's report on their heavily criticised mission in Syria today (see 10.10am). The mission's initial one-month mandate agreed with Damascus expires today.

Bahrain

• Activists say demonstrators have been burning tyres in a protest intended to coincide with the second Bahrain International Air Show (see 12.57pm).

• In the wake of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry's report, the Bahraini regime has failed to address the roots of the kingdom's political and economic inequalities, two researchers say in a lengthy analysis on Open Democracy (see 11.48am).

Egypt

• The criminal trial of the ousted Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak for alleged collusion in the killing of more than 800 protesters is illegal as he should be tried by a military tribunal, his lawyer has told a court in Cairo (see midday).

• A prominent Egyptian activist was attacked by unidentified assailants on Wednesday night (see 9.49am).

2.29pm: The online campaign group, Avaaz, has joined the clamour calling for the Arab League to push for help from the UN in Syria.

With the Arab League observers due to submit their report on the Syria mission today, Avaaz claims that their presence in the country has failed to stop the bloodshed. It says it has recorded 746 civilian killings since the mission began and attacks by security forces on over 20 demonstrations organised for monitors' visits.

Avaaz executive director Ricken Patel said:

Arab League observers have now observed Assad's brutality first hand. Their mission has been treated with contempt and failed on every objective. Protesters are targeted under their noses and many of the people they speak to are immediately attacked. It's time for the Arab League to push for help from the UN security council to stop the horror-show in Syria.

On Wednesday, a coalition of 140 human rights organisations working in Arab countries urged the Arab League to withdraw its monitors from Syria and to call for the UN to take action to stop the violence.

2.53pm: A Yemeni draft law granting immunity to the outgoing president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has been amended today to limit the protection his aides would enjoy, a minister told Reuters.

The draft law, which has been heavily criticized by rights groups, the United Nations and Yemeni protesters, will now shield the aides only in "political cases," said legal affairs minister Mohammad Makhlafi.

It had previously offered blanket immunity to associates of Saleh, who will still get full protection himself, Makhlafi said, without elaborating the type of cases on which his aides could be tried.

Meanwhile, demonstrations against Saleh's regime continue, including in the restive city of Taiz.

3.25pm: The Syrian state news agency, Sana, has confirmed the death of Brigadier General Adel Moustapha. According to the opposition Local Co-ordination Committees he was killed by soldiers who refused his orders to shoot at civilians in the Bab Qilbi area (see 1.33pm). Sana reports that he was killed, along with two other members of the security forces, when "an armed terrorist group opened fire on a police patrol in the district".

In the same report, Sana, says that the former head of the city municipality of of Dera'a, Hassan Boushnaq, was killed as he left his house, again by "an armed terrorist group".

3.46pm: Opponents to the Assad regime in al-Hamidiyah, in Hama, have welcomed Arab League observers in raucous fashion if this video is anything to go by.

It purportedly shows members of the Free Syrian Army riding on top of - and hanging off the sides of - cars carrying the observers.

There are many more military defectors in the crowd, some being carried on the shoulders of civilians as the crowd cheers.

4.08pm: The Arab League monitoring mission in Syria is supposed to end today, after observers spent a month in the country.

But the Associated Press reports one League official as saying that the mission has been extended until Sunday, when the League will meet in Cairo to discuss the report by the head of the mission, General Mohammed Ahmed al-Dabi.

Adnan al-Khaudeir is the head of the Cairo operations room that handles reports by the monitors.

Another League official, this one speaking anonymously, said that the mission may be extended for another month at the Sunday meeting.

The anonymous official said that extending the mission would help the opposition more than the regime. "The killings are less, the protests increase," he claimed.

The mission's presence offers assurance to the people because the observers can spot any violations. There is a conviction even among Syria opponents that the extension is better than withdrawal.

The monitors will remain in 17 different places around Syria until the Arab League makes a final decision, al-Khadeir said.

"If there is a decision to extend the mission of the observers, we are ready to send more monitors after training them in three days," he said, adding that the total number of monitors might reach 300.

4.19pm: Five unemployed Moroccan men set themselves on fire in the capital Rabat as part of widespread demonstrations in the country over the lack of jobs, especially for university graduates, a rights activist told the Associated Press today. Three were burned badly enough to be hospitalised.

It was a vegetable seller setting himself on fire in Tunisia that trigger the Arab spring in December 2010.

4.25pm: In Damascus, a Syrian security agent was wounded when a small explosive device tore through his car in the Tadamon area, a Syrian official told the Associated Press. No other damages were reported from the explosion this morning, according to the official.

4.47pm: Here is a summary of the day's key events so far.


Syria

• The Arab League monitoring mission has been extended to Sunday, according to an official, and may be extended for another month, according to another (see 4.08pm). The head of the Arab League observers will submit the group's report on their heavily criticised mission in Syria today (see 10.10am), and the League will discuss it on Sunday.

• Up to 22 people have been killed as clashes between the regime's security forces and opposition activists and army defectors continue, according to activists. Brigadier Adel Moustapha was killed by soldiers who refused his orders to shoot at civilians in Hama, the Local Coordination Committees, an activist group, report. The Syrian state news agency said he was killed by "an armed terrorist group" (see 3.25pm).

• In Damascus, a Syrian security agent was wounded when a small explosive device tore through his car in the Tadamon area, a Syrian official told the Associated Press (see 4.25pm).

• Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, called for an end to the violence in Syria and urged the UN security council to speak out against it. She said: "We want the Syrian regime to understand that sticking to violence and hanging on to power won't bring peace." Violence in Syria must end, she said, and the international community must use "clear language toward [president Bashar] Assad."

Bahrain

• Activists say demonstrators have been burning tyres in a protest intended to coincide with the second Bahrain International Air Show (see 12.57pm).

• In the wake of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry's report, the Bahraini regime has failed to address the roots of the kingdom's political and economic inequalities, two researchers say in a lengthy analysis on Open Democracy (see 11.48am).

Egypt

• The criminal trial of the ousted Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak for alleged collusion in the killing of more than 800 protesters is illegal as he should be tried by a military tribunal, his lawyer has told a court in Cairo (see midday).

• A prominent Egyptian activist was attacked by unidentified assailants on Wednesday night (see 9.49am).

Morocco

• Five unemployed men set themselves on fire in the capital Rabat as part of widespread demonstrations in the country over the lack of jobs, especially for university graduates, a rights activist told the Associated Press (see 4.19pm).

• Middle East and North Africa
• Arab and Middle East unrest
• Syria
• Bashar al-Assad
• Egypt
• Hosni Mubarak
• Yemen
• Bahrain

Haroon Siddique

Paul Owen




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01/23/12--08:02: Syria rejects Arab League demands - 23 January 2012 (chan 3123589)



• Arab League sets timetable for the end of Assad regime
• Syria rejects the plan as 'flagrant interference'
• Free Syrian Army resistance in Zabadani and Douma
• First day of Egypt's new parliament

Read the latest summary

4.02pm: Here's a summary of today events:

Syria

• The regime of president Bashar al-Assad has rejected Arab League demands for a transition of power in Syria. It accused the league of blatant interference and claimed the proposals showed that the organisation was part of an international conspiracy against Syria.

• Syrian activists also rejected the league's proposals claiming they were unattainable. The Local Coordination Committees in Syria said the league's mission should be declared a failure. The opposition Syrian National Council said Syria should be referred to the United Nations and the international criminal court.

• The Sudanese general in charge of the Arab League mission has defended the initiative claiming it helped reduce violence in Syira Mohammad Ahmad al-Dabi blamed part of the violence on armed elements within the opposition.

• Up to 150,000 people attended the funeral of people killed by the security forces in Douma, close to the capital Damascus. Part of the town is reported to be controlled by military defectors. Activists claimed up to 18 people were killed across Syria today, including at least one defector.

• The European Union has approved a new round of sanctions against 22 senior members of the Assad regime. The EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said: "We're deeply concerned with the situation in Syria. There needs to be a peaceful transition in that country."

Egypt

• The first new parliament of the post-Mubarak era held its inaugural session. Some Salafist MPs in the Islamist-dominated parliament pledged to serve the nation only if it did not "contradict God's doctrine".

3.28pm: The activist group, the Local Coordination Committee in Syria claims that 18 people were killed today, including a child and a military defector.

It reports deaths in Deraa in the south, Homs in centre, Idlib in the north-west, Bokamal in the east, and the suburbs of Damascus. It reports cannot be independently verified.

AFP says 15 people were killed including five defectors, al-Jazeera's live blog reports.

3.20pm: "The longer the Arab League's mission in Syria is seen to fail, the greater the damage to its credibility," argues David Hartwell, Middle East analyst at IHS Janes.

Given that the monitoring mission is only allowed to operate in Syria at all with the permission of the Syrian government, the League may be optimistic in its assumption that it can strengthen and extend the mission's mandate without incurring Damascus' displeasure, especially now that the organisation has explicitly called for removal of the Assad regime. Damascus may not choose to throw out the observers for fear of angering what little support it can still muster in international diplomatic circles, but there will surely now be new, more stringent, limits on the level of co-operation it affords al-Dabi and his fellow monitors.

The likelihood of increased Syrian intransigence may ultimately call into question the point of continuing the monitoring mission, but withdrawal appears to be something that the Arab League does not want to contemplate at this time, despite the continuation of the violence. It may be ineffective but as long as the monitors are in Syria at all, goes this argument, then some form of leverage, however limited, is maintained over Syrian policy. The counter to this though, and a critique that has already been made by opposition sources, is that this makes the Arab League look weak and indirectly complicit in the deaths of civilians. If the mission is failing in its primary objective, what is the point of it remaining in the country?

The problem this has created for the Arab League is one of credibility. Making the choice of whether to stay or leave Syria exposes the potential for a major policy failure at a time when the organisation is seeking to capitalise and maintain the democratising wave of the Arab Spring by being more active and interventionist in the affairs of its members than at anytime in its history. In this context, and against a backdrop of UN political gridlock, mistakes were almost bound to have occurred. However, this does not alter the fundamental dilemma of where League policy towards should go from here.

2.46pm: Even if Washington and Tehran remain determined to avoid an all-out war, with every passing month there is a rising chance of one breaking out by accident, warns our diplomatic editor Julian Borger.

There are a spectrum of options falling well short of total closure [of the strait of Hormuz], forms of harassment of the oil trade that would drive the price of crude up and keep it up, very much to Iran's benefit, but fall short of a casus belli for war. However, exercising such options requires subtlety and fine judgment on all sides and that is by no means a given. In a period of sustained high tension, an over-zealous Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander could seize his moment to start a war, or a nervous American captain, his vessel just seconds from Iran's anti-ship missiles, could just as easily miscalculate. The last time Iran and America played chicken in this particular stretch of water, in 1988, a missile cruiser called the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian Airbus, killing 290 civilians including 66 children.

Spencer Ackerman, author of Wired magazine's Danger Room blog, fears that tensions are now so high that naval blunder could spark a war.

Speaking on Blogginheads he said: "You can easily imagine some scenario where some [Iranian] fast boats come too close to a ship in that [US] carrier fleet. Both sides are on edge, shots are fired and the whole thing escalates. The possibility of that is lot more significant than a lot of strategists are giving credit for. Perhaps I'm being paranoid."

2.19pm: AP has this account of al-Dabi's defence of the Arab League mission:

The head of the Arab League observers in Syria defended his team's work Monday, saying its job is not to stop the violence stemming from the country's 10-month-old uprising against President Bashar Assad.

Mohammed Ahmed al-Dabi told reporters in Cairo that the mission's task rather is to monitor progress on the League's plan — which Damascus agreed to in December — to end the country's crisis.

"The delegation's mission is observation, not to stop killing or to stop destruction," al-Dabi said. "If the violence stops, we'll say that it has. And if this doesn't happen, we'll say so" ...

Al-Dabi said the observers' presence had cut down on the bloodshed in Syria.

"When the delegation arrived, there was clear and obvious violence," he said. "But after the delegation arrived, the violence started to go lessen gradually."

The observers have confirmed 136 killings, committed by both sides, since their arrival in Syria, al-Dabi said. The UN says 400 have been killed.

He said that in some areas, observers had found evidence of machine guns fired over people's heads. In other places, they saw evidence of direct clashes. In yet other regions, armed opposition groups attacked security forces who were "forced to respond to this fire," he said.

1.54pm: The opposition Syrian National Council has called for an international criminal court investigation into the Syrian government's crackdown against protesters, AFP reports.

It urged the Arab League to refer Syria to the UN who in turn should call in call in the ICC, it said.

A new SNC statement also calls for the establishment of a no fly zone over Syria and humanitarian safety zones.

1.46pm: The ICC has an important clarification about the trial of Saif al-Islam., as BrownMoses notes in the comments section.

Reuters reports:

The International Criminal Court said on Monday it has not decided whether Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of the overthrown Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, should be tried in Libya, contradicting earlier comments by a Libyan minister ...

The ICC has given Libya a January 23 deadline to confirm whether and when it would surrender Saif al-Islam and to give information about his mental and physical health. It also asked Libya to answer concerns, raised by activists, that Saif al-Islam was being held incommunicado, without access to lawyers.

ICC spokesman Fadi El-Abdallah said that the court had received information on Monday from Libya but declined to give details, saying it was confidential.

1.12pm: Video from Douma, north west of Damascus, purports to show tens of thousands of people attending the funeral of 12 people killed over the weekend.

Parts of the area were reported to have been under the control of military defectors.

AFP said 150,000 people attended the funeral.

12.08pm: Here's a summary of the main events so far today:

Syria

• The regime of president Bashar al-Assad has rejected Arab League demands for a transition of power in Syria. It accused the league of blatant interference and claimed the proposals showed that the organisation was part of an international conspiracy against Syria. Syrian activists also rejected the proposals claiming they were unattainable.

• The Sudanese general in charge of the Arab League mission claimed that the presence of observers helped reduce violence in the country. Speaking at a press conference in Cairo, Mohammad Ahmad al-Dabi blamed part of the violence on armed elements within the opposition.

• The European Union has approved a new round of sanctions against 22 senior members of the Assad regime. The EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said: "We're deeply concerned with the situation in Syria. There needs to be a peaceful transition in that country."

Libya

• The new Libyan authorities have confirmed that they want to hold a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi on Libyan soil. The international criminal court has has asked Libya for access to Saif and for details about the conditions under which he is being held.

Egypt

• The first new parliament of the post-Mubarak era has started its inaugural session. The new assembly, which is dominated by Islamists, was due to elect a speaker and two deputies later in the session.

11.38am: Interesting breaking news on the fate of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, via Sky News:

Libyan Justice Minister says Gaddafi's son Saif Al-Islam will be tried in Libya, not the Hague

— Sky News Newsdesk (@SkyNewsBreak) January 23, 2012

CNN's Ben Wedeman tweets:

International Criminal Court [ICC] accepts that Saif al-IslamGadhafi is to be tried in #Libya.

— benwedeman (@bencnn) January 23, 2012

11.24am: Al-Jazeera English has stopped covering al-Dabi's rambling press conference.

The Lebanese news site Naharnet, which is live tweeting the event, reports that he blamed armed elements in the opposition for some of some of the violence.

#Breaking Al-Dabi: Armed people ignited the violence pushing the security forces to respond to them.naharnet.com

— Naharnet (@Naharnet) January 23, 2012

Al-Dabi's comments have provoked disgust from Syrian activists.

We've been documenting abuses since March 15, 2011 but apparently AlDabi who spent three weeks on the job knows better. #Syria

— Shakeeb Al-Jabri (@LeShaque) January 23, 2012

11.05am: Mohammad Ahmad al-Dabi, the Sudanese general in charge of the Arab League's mission in Syria, is giving a press conference in Cairo.

"The level of violence reduced after our arrival," he reported according to a translation from al-Jazeera.

Al-Dabi said there were conflicting reports about the number of political detainees in Syria. The Syrian authorities claimed 7,000 prisoners were released, he said.

Al-Dabi was criticised by activists last month after he said observers saw "nothing frightening" in Homs.

10.27am: The BBC has demanded an apology from Syrian state TV after it accused the corporation of making up stories and inciting sectarian tensions.

The BBC's foreign editor Jon Williams tweeted:

BBC demanding apology from #Syria's Al Dunya & Al Ikhbaria TV: accused us of inciting sectarianism & fabricating stories. Of course, untrue

— Jon Williams (@WilliamsJon) January 23, 2012

He also claimed that an employee was attacked by Assad supporters.

BBC colleague in #Syria attacked by Prez Assad supporters. Committed to reporting all sides of story. Intimidation of local staff must stop.

— Jon Williams (@WilliamsJon) January 23, 2012

As if to underline the point about reporting both sides of the story, the BBC's Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen is providing updates from a government organised tour of Homs.

#homs milit hosp docs say average 10 casualties a day, maybe 2-3 dead. But today already 5 dead #assad #syria

— Jeremy Bowen (@jfjbowen) January 23, 2012

9.55am: Rival chanting has broken out in Cairo to mark the swearing in of the new parliament, Jack Shenker reports from the Egyptian capital.

Jack, who tweets under the name @hackneylad, has these updates:

Rival chanting breaks out by different group: 'the revolution brought the parliament, long live #Egypt'. Anti- #SCAF guys look unimpressed.

— Jack Shenker (@hackneylad) January 23, 2012

Yards from #Egypt's parlt, crowds chant: 'Down with military rule - there is still a revolution in the square' #jan25 twitter.com/hackneylad/sta…

— Jack Shenker (@hackneylad) January 23, 2012

Meanwhile, Tom Gara, Gulf news editor of the Financial Times, notes the Islamic dominance of the new intake:

Some awesome facial hair on show in new Egyptian parliament.

— Tom Gara (@tomgara) January 23, 2012

9.22am: The Arab League is getting in the neck from all sides.

The activist group, the Local Coordination Committee in Syria, said the league's proposals were "unattainable" and its mission should be declared a failure.

Here's excerpt of its statement:

The Syrian people have lost confidence in the Arab League's ability to stop the regime's ongoing bloodshed. It is clear that the regime has been pulling the country towards chaos and destruction while the Arab League remains stagnant.

The LCC views the extension of the Arab League's observer mission as another deadline for the regime's killing machine and a form of support in suppressing the Revolution while Syrian society is being obliterated. The regime succeeded in transforming the first Arab League initiative into its own agenda and was in control of its course and content. During the Arab League's mission, as part of the protocol, 795 people were martyred in the first month, making it a failure in accomplishing all of its initiatives, including the withdrawal of army troops from the cities, ending the daily killings, releasing detainees or clarifying the fate of missing persons.

The LCC finds the Arab League Ministerial Committee's proposal unattainable and lacking proper implementation mechanism. Thus far, it has not nor will it put an end to the regime's brutality.

9.02am: Syria has portrayed the Arab League proposals as part of an international conspiracy against the Assad regime.

The state news agency Sana said the league's proposed timetable for the Assad regime to transfer power "came in the framework of the conspiratorial scheme hatched against Syria".

An official suggested the league was backing the armed gangs Syria claims are behind the unrest. It quoted the official saying the league should have condemned armed terrorists but instead it issued: "instigatory statements which reflect their owners' connection with the schemes targeting the security of our people through demanding the foreign interference in Syria's affairs".

8.26am: (all times GMT) Welcome to Middle East Live. The Arab League's initiative to end the violence in Syria appears to be on the brink of collapse. Syria has rejected its proposed timetable for a transition of power as "flagrant interference". At the same time Saudi Arabia said it will withdraw its observers from an extended monitoring mission.

Here's a round up of the main developments in Syria and elsewhere in the region:

Syria

• Syria has rejected an Arab League call for President Bashar al-Assad to hand over power to his deputy as "flagrant interference," the BBC reports. An official said proposals were not in the interests of the Syrian people and would not prevent the country from "advancing its political reforms and bringing security and stability to its people who have shown, during this crisis, their support for national unity as they have rallied around President Assad".

• The Arab League urged Assad to step down as part of an ambitious timetable for the transition of power, the Washington Post reports. The proposals, agreed at a meeting in Cairo on Sunday, included:

• Negotiations with the opposition within two weeks

• A national unity government within two months

• Assad to transfer power to his deputy

• Multi-party elections overseen by international observers within three months

• Extension of the Arab League monitoring mission for another month

• An end to violence from both sides

• Saudi Arabia said it will withdraw its Arab League monitors from Syria, with the Gulf states expected to follow in a potentially fatal blow to the contentious mission. The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, accused the Syrian regime of acting in bad faith and not implementing any of its obligations, spelled out in the Arab League resolution that cleared the path for the mission almost three months ago. "My country will withdraw its monitors because the Syrian government did not execute any of the elements of the Arab resolution plan," he said.

• Military defectors still control the town of Zabadani north west of Damascus and areas of Douma, 10 miles north east of the capital, according to New York Times. Ahmed, an anti-government activist said that hundreds of soldiers in the area had defected in recent weeks. "If Douma is liberated, that means that the next attack will be in the heart of Damascus," he said.

A video statement from the Free Syrian Army threatened to execute five senior offices if government forces attempted to retake Douma.

Egypt

• An Egyptian blogger jailed by the military junta for insulting the army has been officially pardoned, as the country's ruling generals attempt to bolster public support before protests planned for the Wednesday's anniversary of the uprising. Maikel Nabil Sanad, a 26-year-old Coptic Christian who became a cause celebre for activists opposed to the post-Mubarak military government, was among almost 2,000 prisoners convicted by military tribunals over the past year who are set to be released after an announcement by Egypt's de facto leader, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi.

• Egypt's newly elected parliament is to open today amid signs of an agreement between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military rulers on a new constitution. It involves a potential immunity deal for the generals, according to the New York Times.

• According to official results announced at the weekend, the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party will form the largest parliamentary bloc with about 47% of the representatives. The ultra-conservative Salafist al-Nour party came a strong second, with liberal, leftist and centrist parties gaining a smattering of seats.

Libya

• Protesters stormed the Libyan transitional government's headquarters in Benghazi while the country's interim leader was holed up in the building. NTC chief Mustafa Abdul Jalil tried to address the crowd from a second-floor window, but protesters began throwing bottles at him.

Yemen

• President Ali Abdullah Saleh has left the country for medical treatment paving the way for a transition of power after Parliament agreed to a controversial immunity deal. "God willing, I will leave for [medical] treatment in the United States and I will return to Sanaa as head of the General People's Congress party," he said.

Israel and the Palestinian territories

• Human rights organisations have accused Israel of mistreating hundreds of Palestinian children arrested for throwing stones, Harriet Sherwood reports.

Between 500 and 700 Palestinian children are arrested by Israeli soldiers each year, mostly accused of throwing stones. Since 2008, Defence for Children International (DCI) has collected sworn testimonies from 426 minors detained in Israel's military justice system.

Their statements show a pattern of night-time arrests, hands bound with plastic ties, blindfolding, physical and verbal abuse, and threats. About 9% of all those giving affidavits say they were kept in solitary confinement, although there has been a marked increase to 22% in the past six months.

Few parents are told where their children have been taken. Minors are rarely questioned in the presence of a parent, and rarely see a lawyer before or during initial interrogation. Most are detained inside Israel, making family visits very difficult.

Human rights organisations say these patterns of treatment – which are corroborated by a separate study, No Minor Matter, conducted by an Israeli group, B'Tselem – violate the international convention on the rights of the child, which Israel has ratified, and the fourth Geneva convention.

• Syria
• Bashar al-Assad
• Egypt
• Hosni Mubarak
• Yemen
• Arab and Middle East unrest
• Middle East and North Africa
• Israel
• Palestinian territories
• US foreign policy
• Saif al-Islam Gaddafi

Matthew Weaver




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01/24/12--10:31: Cairo one year on from Egypt's revolution - in pictures (chan 3123589)

A year after the uprising that toppled President Mubarak, residents in the Egyptian capital are struggle with rising unemployment







01/25/12--02:27: Egypt: Jan 25 anniversary demonstrations - live updates (chan 3123589)



• Cairo prepares for dozens of anniversary protests
• Scaf partially lifts emergency laws
• Arab League plan for a transition of power in Syria put to UN

10.18am: Despite his apparent phobia about crowds, Mohamed ElBaradei the former UN weapons inspectors and Egyptian reform leader, has joined the protests.

@elbaradei arriving in Giza mosque #jan25 bit.ly/yzjcLP v @seldeeb

— Ranya Khalifa (@RanyaKhalifa) January 25, 2012

Earlier this month ElBaradei announced he would not be standing as a presidential candidate in protest at the ruling military council's failure to cede power to civilian rule.

The latest Arabist podcast discussed ElBaradei's motives and his fear of crowds.

9.54am: Another apparent sop to Egyptian activists? Almost 2,000 detainees convicted by military courts and 1,250 convicted by civilian courts are reported to have released from Tora prison, according to Egyptian journalist Nadia abou el-Magd.

Meanwhile, the BBC's Helen Merriman says she has never seen so many Islamists in Tahrir Square.

9.44am: The Guardian's Jack Shenker, who tweets under the name @hackneylad, is prepared for a busy day.

The rain has cleared, the sun is out, & one year on #Egypt is back on the streets to continue its revolution #jan25 #tahrir

— Jack Shenker (@hackneylad) January 25, 2012

I tweeted this 1yr ago today: 'Whatever else happens #jan25 will be remembered as the day egyptians reclaimed their streets from the police'

— Jack Shenker (@hackneylad) January 25, 2012

The competition for best #Tahrir headwear is underway... #Egypt #jan25 twitter.com/hackneylad/sta…

— Jack Shenker (@hackneylad) January 25, 2012

9.27am: Excitement is building in Egypt.

Activist Gigi Ibrahim tweets:

All the news is saying the #Tahrir is packed and not one march has started yet ..great start #Jan25

— Gigi Ibrahim(@Gsquare86) January 25, 2012

CNN's Ben Wedemen shows the size of the Tahrir crowd.

Photo: #Tahrir 11 am. Already crowded. #25jan #egypt twitter.com/bencnn/status/…

— benwedeman (@bencnn) January 25, 2012

Protests have also begun in Suez, according to al-Jazeera's Adam Makary.

Only a few hundred protesting now in #Suez's Midan Arbaeen but three big marches are headed in our direction #Egypt twitter.com/adamakary/stat…

— Adam Makary (@adamakary) January 25, 2012

8.48am: Welcome to Middle East Live. Dozens of demonstrations are planned in Egypt to mark the first anniversary of the revolution that toppled president Hosni Mubarak. Amid a heavy security presence the protests are being held to express opposition to the ruling military junta. Jack Shenker and Abdel-Rahman Hussein in Cairo will be providing regular updates through out the day.

Here's a round up of the latest developments in Egypt and elsewhere in the region:

Egypt

• Activists have established multiple starting points from which scheduled marches will set out towards Cairo's Tahrir Square, Ahram reports. The day is expected to witness dozens of separate demonstrations, in which participants plan to hold up pictures of slain activists, Egyptian flags, and lists of outstanding revolutionary demands, it says.

• The head of the military junta, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, has promised to partially lift the country's three-decade-old state of emergency, in a last-ditch effort to bolster public support ahead of the demonstrations.

Human rights campaigners said the law remained in place because police were still allowed to detain anyone suspected of thuggery. Meanwhile, security measures were ramped up at government buildings as Egyptian authorities braced themselves for what is expected to be one of the biggest outbreaks of popular unrest since the fall of Mubarak on Wednesday.

• The Egyptian revolution is like the Nile in flood: try keeping that back with barriers and uniforms, writes novelist Ahdaf Soueif.

The revolution, which began a year ago on 25 January, has gone everywhere. It has raged and tiraded through some spaces, flowed steadily through others, and seeped into yet more. There is nowhere, nothing, nobody who has not been affected by it.

As the People's Assembly convenes and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) plots, the revolution continues along the pathways it has created and carves out new ones ...

Nature acts to redress an imbalance that has become dangerous. Only this time nature was human: a flood of people who left their homes and walked peaceably into the squares of their cities to say "no more". No more military rule whether clear or hidden, no more emergency or repressive laws, a restructuring of the police and the security apparatus, the freedom of political prisoners and civilians subjected to court martial. The cleansing of the judiciary. No to corruption. Yes to human rights. And a rearrangement of the economy to privilege the majority.

Parliament, as the elected legislative body, can start delivering on a lot of these. If the military allows it. Or if it gets rid of the military. What will become clear over the coming few weeks is how far parliament – or sections of it – will align itself with the aims of the revolution.

• Egypt faces an acute financial crisis that could undermine its political transition, the New York Times reports. Activists focused on forcing Egypt's military rulers to give up power say the economic malaise has become a major obstacle to their cause because so many Egyptians have come to crave a return to stability.

• Two of Egypt's best known activists Gigi Ibrahim and Mosa'ab Elshamy, tell the New York Times of their frustration at the lack of genuine change. "Really, what we have achieved was only just to topple Mubarak; we have Mubarak's generals running the country," said Ibrahim. Elshamy, who was arrested at a protest in May said "what I saw in prison made me feel more determined."

Syria

• Britain, the US and France are seeking Russian support for a new United Nations security council resolution to endorse Arab demands that Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, step down. Western countries have, in effect, abandoned attempts to impose UN sanctions on the Assad regime and are hoping for a new consensus for based on an Arab League timetable for a transition of power.The secretary general of the Arab League, Nabil al-Arabi, and Hamed bin Jassem AlThani, the Qatari prime minister, are planning to brief the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, in New York in the next few days.

• Barack Obama used his state of the union address to warn Assad that he cannot resist the "wave of change" that has swept across the region.

I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change cannot be reversed, and that human dignity cannot be denied.

How this incredible transformation will end remains uncertain. But we have a huge stake in the outcome. And while it's ultimately up to the people of the region to decide their fate, we will advocate for those values that have served our own country so well. We will stand against violence and intimidation. We will stand for the rights and dignity of all human beings –- men and women; Christians, Muslims and Jews. We will support policies that lead to strong and stable democracies and open markets, because tyranny is no match for liberty.

• Peter Harling from the International Crisis Groups highlights the collective failing over Syria in an excellent analysis of the crisis in Foreign Policy magazine.


If this impasse endures any longer, the struggle could quickly mutate into an open-ended civil war. Although the regime bears most of the responsibility for bringing the situation up to this point, the international community and exiled opposition have no excuse for moving it further along this terrifying path.

Libya

• Elders in Bani Walid said they were appointing their own local government after fighters opposed to the National Transitional Council seized control of the town. They denied claims they were loyal to Muammar Gaddafi, and there were no signs of Gaddafi-era green flags, which witnesses earlier said had been hoisted over the town.

Israel and the Palestinian territories

• An Israeli military court has ordered the speaker of the Palestinian legislative body to be jailed for six months without trial after he was arrested at a checkpoint last week. Aziz Dweik, a member of Hamas and a senior elected politician, was imprisoned "without charge or legal justification", a statement from his office said. It claimed Israel was attempting to thwart moves towards reconciliation between the rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas.

Tunisia

• The trial of a television executive on morality charges for airing the award winning Iranian cartoon Persepolis, is a relic of the despotism that Tunisians protested against, according to Human Rights Watch. The broadcast led to protests in Tunis because it contained a scene depicting God. Now Nabil Karoui, director of Nessma TV, will go on trial in April 19 for airing the film.

• Middle East and North Africa
• Arab and Middle East unrest
• Egypt
• Hosni Mubarak
• Protest
• US foreign policy
• Syria
• Bashar al-Assad
• Tunisia
• Libya

Matthew Weaver

Lizzy Davies




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01/25/12--03:10: Egypt marks year's anniversary of 25 January uprising - video (chan 3123589)

People gather in Cairo's central Tahrir Square exactly a year since Egypt's 25 January revolution, which led to the toppling of Hosni Mubarak in February 2011







01/25/12--03:53: Jan 25 - how Egypt's bloggers see the revolution one year on (chan 3123589)



Three bloggers who have documented Egypt's revolution online share how they covered events in 2011 and tell us what the anniversary of 25 January means to them

Hossam el-Hamalawy, arabawy.org

Hossam is a journalist and blogger with the Egyptian Revolutionary Socialists. In a blog post from 12 February 2011 he writes about the #Jan25 revolution:

At this point, the Tahrir Square occupation is likely to be suspended. But we have to take Tahrir to the factories now. As the revolution proceeds an inevitable class polarization is to happen. We have to be vigilant. We shouldn't stop here… We hold the keys to the liberation of the entire region, not just Egypt… Onwards with a permanent revolution that will empower the people of this country with direct democracy from below…

Reflecting on the first anniversary of 25 January 2011, he says:

As Mubarak stepped down on 12 February 2011, there was rightly a wide feeling of celebration in Egypt and a fresh wave of optimism for what would come next. People like myself who saw the revolution as only starting at the time were a minority. We had managed only to get rid of Mubarak, but his regime remained alive and well, intact with the same methods of repression. His army generals at the time had to sacrifice him under the escalating pressures from the streets, public squares and finally labour strikes.

When I wrote this posting on 12 Feb, such anti-SCAF views as well as the support for labour strikes was not popular. Almost a year later, I'm proud I took that position. A continuous process of disillusionment with the army has been happening over the past year, and increasing sections of Egyptian society can now see that Mubarak's army generals are leading nothing but the counter-revolution in an attempt to save the regime, diffusing all goals we cried for in Tahrir and elsewhere. You could have been lynched by the people themselves if you had chanted against the army in February or March, but we saw in the past months two renewed mini uprisings in November and December, following a wave of mass strikes in September and October which saw at least three quarters of million Egyptians stopping work, to demand social justice.

My position has not changed a year later. I still believe industrial actions and the social movement to be the only hope for this revolution to succeed. As we mark the first anniversary of the revolution we are reminded that no revolutions get settled in 18 days or months. And the fight will continue to take Tahrir to the factories and workplaces to bring a final end to this regime.

Gigi Ibrahim, theangryegyptian.wordpress.com

Gigi is a revolutionary socialist activist and blogger. Her videos, images and tweets have documented events since 25 January 2011.

She shot this video in Tahrir Square on the night of 25 January 2011 before police evacuated the square by force.

"It was a special moment when chants against Mubarak and the regime were shaking Tahrir," she says.

When I look back at this video from the first day in Tahrir, it reminds me of how much nothing has changed. This picture or video could have been taken yesterday or even 25 Jan 2012 itself. I never had the illusion that a revolution was an easy road for change, but in Egypt, it was inevitable. The people broke their fears and risked their lives because they could no longer sustain a life under Mubarak's repression. Egyptians, young and old, rich and poor, Muslims and Christians, men and women, all took to the streets risking their lives in confrontations with police bullets and tear gas for one demand, "the downfall of the regime." A year later, with 19 more repressive dictators in power, we are still demanding the downfall of the regime represented in the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces (SCAF). This was never a surprise to me because I understood as early as 11 February with SCAF in power that this is only the beginning of the revolution. SCAF are the backbone of the regime that people have sacrificed their lives and eyes to dismantle. It gives me great boost of optimism that a year later more thousands of people are willing to do the same to finish the revolution. The determination and strength in people's eyes that I have seen in those 18 days in Tahrir last year is exactly what I see in every revolutionary today demanding justice and retribution for our martyrs.

Sallie Pisch, bloggingegypt.blogspot.com

Sallie is an American journalist who came to Cairo in 2008 and has been
covering Egyptian politics since March 2010. She wrote this post in February 2011 about the demonstrations in Tahrir Square on 25 January 2011:

In less than three weeks Egyptians shattered the wall of fear which had kept them silent for decades. The wall had been cracked already, and the foundation was a bit unstable, but until January 25 that wall still stood. On the evening of January 25 I stood in Tahrir Square as tens of thousands of Egyptians gathered there for the first time, giddy with excitement.

I spoke with a lawyer who had helped found the human rights movement in Egypt in the 1970s, and had been part of the student demonstrations in 1973 and 1977. "I was here in Tahrir in 1977 and I was arrested for that demonstration," he told me. "And now I am here again and I see all these young people, the age of my son and my daughters." For him, as for many others, it was an emotional moment.

Destroying that 'culture of fear,' as I once heard it called, is one of the single most important victories of Egypt's revolution. Whatever happens next, Egyptians now know that they can go to the streets and demand their rights.

A year on she reflects upon her previous blog post and events in Tahrir:

The surreal sense of community in Tahrir Square that touched something purely human in everyone who encountered it - that's what this article takes me back to. The revolution was young and intoxicating, Mubarak was gone, and Egypt overflowed with hope and the invincibility of youth.

I still believe one of the single most important victories of Egypt's revolution was shattering the wall of fear that had silenced Egyptians for decades. Egyptians are no longer afraid to take their demands - economic, social or ideological - to the street, and that wall cannot be rebuilt.

One year later the romanticism of the revolution has faded. The adrenaline that coursed like shockwaves through Cairo is gone, as are the giddy smiles that once mirrored across Tahrir Square.

Some seem to have forgotten that when the police withdrew from Cairo's streets it was the people who protected themselves, their homes, and their history; that in the absence of rule of law, Egyptians proved they could take care of themselves.

Yet Egyptians have not forgotten the days they first dared to dream that change could come to Egypt. What on 25 January was fragile hope has grown into stubborn determination somehow embedded in the Egyptian spirit.

That proud spirit led Egyptians to choose a third path when the former regime offered them a choice between security and liberty: Egyptians chose to have both.

While Egypt's future remains unclear, I would still argue that with perseverance and compassion Egyptians can move forward, keeping both security and liberty.

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01/25/12--05:28: Egypt: #jan25stories - Twitter on the meaning of Jan 25 (chan 3123589)



We asked people in Egypt to share their #jan25stories using Twitter and tell us how they feel about the revolution a year on

A year since the revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak began, Egyptian tweeters have been sharing their thoughts with @guardian on what the anniversary means to them and the country.

Follow the #jan25stories hashtag on Twitter for more tweets.

@guardian: #jan25 Our revolution was arrested - metaphorically & literally - by SCAF. Today we begin the process of releasing it again.

— Lucy Till-Awny (@CairoLucy) January 25, 2012

@guardian It is a monumental day in the history of our country because it proved that united we can accomplish anything .. even freedom

— Alaa El-Sayed (@AlaaElMahrakawy) January 25, 2012

@guardian restoring our voices, building our country & dignity for #Egyptians

— Maha Abouelenein (@mahagaber) January 25, 2012

25/01 proved to the world the power of youth to change future, fear has no longer any place in youth heart @guardian

— Sara واحد من الناس (@sarajery) January 25, 2012

@guardian a nation rising from the abyss. Egyptians are hungry, tortured, their sons killed & still continue the fight. That's admirable.

— Shahinaz IHM Nabeeh (@NazNabeeh) January 25, 2012

@guardian it means going back to Tahrir, the last year has been disappointing, but this morning I see the square & I feel hope once again

— Nancy Morrison (@nancymorrison) January 25, 2012

@guardian the day my generation realised it should have tried that little bit harder - hell tried at all, to get the dignity it deserves.

— نوران سلام/الجزيرة (@N_Sallam) January 25, 2012

@guardian This year's #Jan25 is filled with hope of a better future4 #Egypt even though it is still marred by a number uncertainties

— Nahla Mesbah (@nahlas) January 25, 2012

#jan25stories This year we were in a continuous state of revolution and our success was to keep it alive until all demands are met.

— Hussein Adel Fahmy (@7usfahmy) January 25, 2012

@guardian A country on its path to tangible democratic reform, scratching a dictatorship and reconstructing #Egypt #jan25stories #jan25

— Ranya Khalifa (@RanyaKhalifa) January 25, 2012

@guardian The day we realized that what needed 30-40 years to change could be altered in days #Egypt #jan25stories #jan25

— Youssef (@youssefsalah) January 25, 2012

@guardian we breathe hope, we paid blood to get our freedom, my beloved Egypt is and will always be great. #JAN25

— فريدة(@fzanatyy) January 25, 2012

Send your #jan25stories to @guardian on Twitter and follow live updates on events in Egypt with our blog.

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01/25/12--07:05: Egyptians mark one year anniversary of the revolution - in pictures (chan 3123589)

Thousands gather in Tahrir Square in Cairo to mark the first anniversary of the uprising that ousted President Hosni Mubarak







01/25/12--12:13: Egyptian protesters say 'the revolution never went away' (chan 3123589)



A year after the overthrow of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, protesters return to Tahrir Square to hold the military to account

The final approach to Qasr el-Nil bridge on Zamalek island runs past a series of shaded gardens surrounding the national opera house, a rare patchwork of green amid Cairo's fume-choked Tarmac quilt. Mahmoud Hamdy remembered walking down this same road exactly a year ago to the day, heart pounding and eyes burning, as thousands of anti-regime protesters burst through police lines and struck a fatal blow to one dictator's three-decade aura of invincibility.

"I felt so confident that afternoon, almost dizzy," said the 24-year-old. "But when we reached the bridge there were lines of security troops blocking our way. They were there again on 28 January, making their last stand against the people.

"It was so difficult to pass, but we knew that everything rested on us doing so, everything rested upon us reaching Tahrir."

Twelve months later Hamdy once again found Qasr el-Nil impassable as he tried to make his way towards the capital's main square, the name of which has now become globally synonymous with occupation, resistance and revolt.

This time though it wasn't Hosni Mubarak's hated security forces blocking the way but hundreds of thousands of like-minded fellow citizens, all intent on converging on the same plot of land. They waved flags, held aloft placards, sang and danced and raised their fists in memory of the martyrs, filling first Tahrir, then all the traffic arteries leading into it, and then all the capillaries that branched off from them, until central Cairo – its buildings, its cars and, on Wednesday, its overwhelming volume of people – coagulated into one big revolutionary clot. "These are the Egyptians," nodded Hamdy approvingly. "This is how we speak our mind."

In the 365 days since Egypt's revolution erupted with a breathtaking shudder on to the world stage, the gap between its hopes and its achievements has yawned wide for Hamdy. Like so many others, he watched friends die, first in the struggle to bring down Mubarak and then again in the multiple uprisings that have taken place since, targeting the regime-friendly generals who replaced him.

"Those in uniform who shot Egyptians dead in front of me still walk the streets freely," said the Cairo tour guide. "Those that, like Mubarak, ordered such shootings – they remain in power instead of being behind bars. Listen to chants around us: 'Bread, freedom, human dignity'. Where are those things? Can we see or touch them? No, and that's why we're here today."

Egypt's military council, which has promised to surrender power to a democratically-elected president by the summer, envisaged this most emotive of anniversaries as a celebration, laying on air shows, firework displays and even a specially-commissioned operetta to mark the occasion. But as Hamdy's laundry list of unmet demands showed, few who took to the streets believe their army's promises, and even fewer were in any mood for a party.

"We were afraid that, because of the state media's lies, this 25 January would be taken away from us and turned into something else, something that just congratulated Scaf [the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces] and treated the revolution like a long-finished event," said Abdel Latif Ahmed, a 32-year-old poet, as he joined a rally in the Giza neighbourhood of Mohandiseen, one of the scores of feeder marches that would eventually filter into Tahrir from every corner of the city.

"But this just shows you that the revolution never went away – it is here, it is alive, and it is stronger than ever."

Amid the creative accessorising of insurrectionary protest – a giant puppet of Scaf's head Field Marshal Tantawi was carried by four youths, each sporting masks depicting the faces of those killed over the past year while battling for change – most participants were struck predominantly by the turnout.

"This is the biggest march I've ever been on," said Amira Ahmed, a 29-year-old business editor at an Egyptian newspaper. "Despite the efforts of the authorities, all this energy is directly targeted against military rule. When we left the square after Mubarak was toppled, people always said 'well, we can come back if things go wrong'. They did go wrong, and today is about reclaiming our streets and returning to Tahrir."

Tantawi is known in Egypt by his Arabic title of "mushir" and demonstrators devoted many of their slogans directly at a man they see as little more than a new figurehead for Mubarak's largely intact regime. The rhyme 'Ya mushir, ya mushir, the people are returning to Tahrir', reverberated through backstreets and underpasses as the marches swelled; in the face of such energy, the generals largely opted to stay out of sight, though they did fire up their primary method of public communication these days – Facebook – to repeat their commitment to democratic transition and chide Egyptians for thinking ill of the top brass. "The time will come when we will talk, while we are at our units protecting the land, skies and seas of Egypt," read a Scaf statement on the social networking site. "Then we will reveal several truths that will make this nation proud of its armed forces."

Some had expected trouble in Tahrir itself, not necessarily between protesters and security forces but rather between those explicitly opposed to Scaf and others, like the formal ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood, who have done well out of the junta's erratic path to institutional change and are hence careful to avoid confrontation with the army.

In the end though, peaceful coexistence largely prevailed. "Parliament [which is now dominated by the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party'] is one source of democracy and this, the street, is another," said Adel Tawfiq, a young architect and member of the Muslim Brotherhood. "I know the revolution isn't over, and I think we need both to ensure it succeeds. These two things aren't in opposition to each other, in fact they go hand in hand."

And it is that ascendancy of sovereignty from below – accepted even by those who have most invested in the government – that is perhaps this revolution's greatest triumph so far, one year on from the day it all began. "We're witnessing a new definition of politics," claimed Khaled Fahmy, chair of the history faculty at the American University in Cairo who joined the rallies today. "Those fighting for change here, their imagination, their discourse, their imagery, their tactics and organisation – it's all unprecedented.

"On January 25 2011 these people found a successful formula of mobilisation," he added. "The challenge now is for them to find a successful formula which will allow them to organise and thrive in the politics of Egypt today, and I'm betting on them succeeding because they have not lost their enthusiasm, they have not lost their faith in non-violence despite the enormous violence used against them, they have not stopped organising, and they have not lost their sense of humour. It's a confident humour that looks to the future because they know that time is on their side. Compared to that, Scaf has lost. The generals look like desperate people clinging on to the vestiges of power in the most unimaginative, banal and crude manner possible. And so the revolution continues."

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01/30/12--15:21: Americans barred from leaving Egypt seek refuge at US embassy in Cairo (chan 3123589)



Three US citizens move into embassy as tensions mount over Egyptian crackdown on pro-democracy and human rights groups

Three Americans barred by Egyptian authorities from leaving the country have sought refuge at the United States embassy in Cairo. Tensions between the two states have escalated following unprecedented raids by security forces on a number of human rights and pro-democracy organisations working in Egypt.

Organisations targeted during the December raids included the US-government funded National Democratic Institute (NDI) – founded by former secretary of state Madeleine Albright – and the International Republican Institute (IRI), whose chairman is Republican senator John McCain.

Both organisations are affiliated with the two major US political parties and the crackdown has been viewed as highly provocative in Washington, which underwrites military aid to Egypt to the sum of $1.3bn (£827m) annually.

Egyptian authorities are preventing at least six Americans and four Europeans from leaving the country, citing an investigation opened last month when heavily armed security forces raided the offices of 10 international organisations. Egyptian officials have defended the raids as part of legitimate inquiry into the groups' work and funding.

Those banned from leaving Egypt include Sam LaHood, son of the US transport secretary, Ray LaHood, but officials would not say whether he is at the embassy. The younger LaHood heads the Egypt office of the IRI and said last week that three other employees of the organisation were on the no-fly list – two American and one European.

The NDI said last week that three Americans and three Serb employees are on the list. However, it is understood that none of them are among those who have taken refuge at the US embassy.

A US state department spokeswoman, Kate Starr, told reporters in Washington on Sunday: "A handful of US citizens have opted to stay in the embassy compound in Cairo while waiting for permission to depart Egypt."

Another official said three Americans were at the embassy, adding that the move was not because the US feared their imminent arrest.

US officials have warned that restrictions on civil society groups could hinder aid to Egypt, which would be a major blow to the country as it struggles with economic woes and continued turmoil since the popular uprising that led to Hosni Mubarak being ousted last year. Egypt's military has been locked in a confrontation for months with protesters who demand it immediately hand over power to civilians.

The December raids brought sharp US criticism, and last week President Barack Obama spoke by telephone with Egyptian military chief Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi about the issue.

Recent US legislation could block annual aid to Egypt unless it takes certain steps. These include abiding by its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, holding free and fair elections and "implementing policies to protect freedom of expression, association and religion and due process of law".

The US is due to give $1.3bn in military assistance and $250m in economic aid to Egypt in 2012. Washington has given Egypt an average of $2bn in economic and military aid a year since 1979, according to the Congressional Research Service.

The Egyptian news agency Mena said in December that the 17 "civil society organisations" had been targeted during the raids as part of an investigation into foreign funding of such groups. The Egyptian generals who took power following Mubarak's fall nearly a year ago have accused "foreign hands" of being behind protests against their rule and frequently depict the protesters as receiving foreign funds in a plot to destabilise the country.

Other groups that were raided, according to activists, included the German NGO Konrad Adenauer-Stiftung, which supports political dialogue, the Washington-based Freedom House, and the Egyptian Public Budget Observatory.

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02/08/12--05:44: Egypt's politicians are still under the spell of the military | Islam Lutfi (chan 3123589)



If Egypt's revolution is to lead to democracy, parliament has to free itself from the generals' grip

The protests over Egypt's recent football tragedy are symptomatic of daily life in the ongoing Egyptian revolution. Even now, hardly a month, week or day goes by without someone else losing their life for freedom, or being wounded in the struggle. In essence the revolution is a struggle for legitimacy between the Egyptian parliament, the army and the establishment, and the people in Tahrir Square.

Although the revolution broke out initially as a protest against the political, economic and social injustice of Hosni Mubarak, there were a number of features of his regime that rose above the rest. The ex-president's apparent preference for his foreign contacts, for example, and his plan to bequeath power to his son. The Egyptian youth squashed that idea, which turned out to be Mubarak's achilles heel in the relationship between the presidency and the army. The generals did not understand how to reconcile their objections to inherited power with the need to protect Mubarak's legitimacy. In the end, it was the young people of Tahrir Square who settled the matter for them.

Predictably, the generals did not quite see it that way, and didn't treat the revolution with sufficient respect; it was viewed as a threat to the army's political and revolutionary legitimacy, the legacy of the Free Officers' coup in 1952. For the past 60 years, Egyptian life has been tinted by the army's distinctive khaki.

No one leaves a post in the Egyptian state without the interference of army officers. Every individual can be re-assigned, from the president and his ministers to the leaders of town and village councils. A year down the revolutionary road and it seems that the military has failed to understand that revolutions bring about changes throughout society. The concept of a revolution being fostered by social networking sites is alien to the generals; that they could be led by the youth is stranger still – the absence of military involvement is totally disconcerting to them.

Some of the senior army leadership were very much part of the Mubarak network. He succeeded in turning his officers' concerns away from politics, towards economics. Their vested financial interests in the old regime cleansed them of any notions of overthrowing the president and purging the institutions of state. Senior officers consider what happened to be mere protests against corruption, and overstepped the mark with torture and continued pressure on the poorer social groups in Egypt. They still believe that the solution lies in reducing corruption, placing torture within "safe" limits and taming the working and middle classes with security scapegoats, and a general fear about the loss of stability. Throw in the threat of foreign intervention if the revolution does not calm down, and the generals' plan is complete.

However, what about the legitimacy of parliament? Without the revolution there would not have been free parliamentary elections and the 2010 parliament would have continued to dominate the legislative authority in Egypt. Although last July's protest brought the main pressure which pushed the ruling military council to set a timetable for parliamentary elections, the blood that was shed in the Mohamed Mahmoud massacre safeguarded the transparency of the elections.

Nevertheless, voices within the parliament asked the wrong question regarding which of the two had priority – parliament or the square? The activists, meanwhile, wanted to know how the parliament and the square could support each other.

The root of this question lies in the fact that the majority groups now within parliament – the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis – regard the votes given to them as a "concession" from the citizens to the parliament, allowing it to act without accountability to the public. This is, of course, completely opposite to what the square expects from the revolutionary parliament, which should be one of the legitimate tools for achieving the objectives of the revolution. This discrepancy explains the early clashes between marchers making demands of parliament and the Brotherhood, as the latter has stopped marches from reaching parliament in the belief that parliament alone possesses legitimacy. The legislature has thus fallen under the spell of the military council's propaganda and network of interests.

The struggle for legitimacy will not end quickly. It is clear that it is in Egypt's interests to support the revolution fully, and to demand the immediate departure of the military from government and hold early presidential elections.

However, it is also important for officials from the Mubarak regime to be given a fair trial and to challenge the idea that the security forces are the guardians of the state. This will guarantee an end to military control over the most prominent political positions in Egypt and will pave the way for the withdrawal of the generals' influence over the rest of the corridors of power in Egypt. Only then will the elected parliament and new president inherit a real state wherein they will have the ability to implement their decisions.

The departure of the military will place the ball firmly in parliament's court, as it will have the opportunity to lay the foundations of a free Egypt with an independent judiciary able to fulfil the objectives of the revolutionaries and reassure them that the blood that has been shed on Egyptian soil for the sake of freedom, change and social justice was not spilt in vain. It was sacrificed so that Egypt can emerge from poverty and ignorance, and help the transition towards real independence. If parliament can grasp that concept, then the revolution will have been a success.

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02/14/12--10:00: Sinai explodes into violence after years of chronic poverty and alienation (chan 3123589)



Egypt's Bedouin accused of looting resorts, bombing pipelines and abducting foreigners in post-Mubarak security vacuum

Ahmed Abdo was still asleep in his hut at the gate of the Aqua-Sun beach resort on Egypt's Red Sea coast when 20 masked men carrying guns burst in.

Abdo, 30, and his two colleagues were tied up, their mobile phones taken. The intruders, members of the Bedouin Tarabeen tribe, demanded money – 4m Egyptian pounds (£420,000) – from the owner in compensation for the land on which the resort was built. It belonged, they said, to the Tarabeen.

When the owner demurred, "they took everything – air conditioners, generators, televisions, gas canisters, even the doors," said Abdo. He showed the Guardian around the deserted and ransacked resort: doors kicked in or missing, mattresses taken from bed frames, windows smashed, cushions and rugs seized. The office had been stripped of equipment and furniture; room occupancy charts and leaflets were strewn across the floor. Ten fridges and a huge freezer had gone. Air conditioning units were torn from walls. They even tried to take the pool table, but dropped it mid-heist, leaving it lopsided on buckled legs. The value of goods taken is estimated at more than £100,000.

"Of course I was frightened," said Abdo. "We told them we are only workers here, we need to feed our children." Fortunately, there were no guests at the Aqua Sun at the time of the raid three weeks ago, a combined result of the low season and the impact of Egypt's upheavals on tourism.

The police, said Abdo, had not intervened. A highway patrol passed the resort as it was being looted but "they minded their own business". A local police chief has since advised the Aqua Sun's owner "to solve the problem with the Bedouin because it's not a good time for us to go into confrontation with them," according to Abdo.

The raid on the Aqua-Sun, apparently carried out by a small group of Tarabeen men living outside the immediate area, is one of a string of incidents in the Sinai over recent months. In south of the peninsula, it includes tourist kidnappings and armed robbery; in the north, it is more serious – the repeated bombing of a gas pipeline, the smuggling of people, arms and drugs, and a rise in militant Islamism.

What connects them is a new assertiveness among the region's Bedouin after decades of marginalisation, neglect and discrimination, as well as a growing security vacuum following the fall of former president Hosni Mubarak.

Israel, whose border with the Sinai runs for some 240km (150 miles), has viewed the spate of attacks over the past year with alarm. "Measures are needed to prevent the total collapse of security in and around the peninsula [and] avoid the rise of an armed runaway Bedouin statelet," wrote the Israeli analyst Ehud Yaari in a report, Sinai: A New Front, for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy last month. He described the peninsula as a "new hotspot … with an expanding terrorist infrastructure" and a wild frontier.

In the past 13 months, a pipeline which carries gas through north Sinai to Israel and Jordan has been attacked by militants 12 times, most recently just over a week ago, disrupting flow and causing millions of dollars of damage.

Armed gangs are trafficking huge numbers of people fleeing persecution, war or poverty from rest of Africa, charging thousands of dollars for passage across the Sinai into Israel. Camps have been established, from which emanate horrific stories of rape, torture, extortion, misery and desperation.

Smuggling across the border has become an industry: arms and goods to Gaza; marijuana and refugees to Israel. According to Yaari, the annual worth of this parallel economy was estimated to have exceed $300m (£190m) last year.

Israeli intelligence officials claim Hamas and other Islamic groups are working with militants among the Bedouin to launch operations against Israel. They are "turning Sinai into another arena from which terrorist activity can be launched", said Major General Aviv Kochavi, head of Israeli military intelligence, earlier this month.

A cross-border attack last August in which eight Israelis were killed was carried out by Bedouin militants from the Sinai, Israel's military concluded last month, having initially blamed a Palestinian militant group in Gaza, several of whose members had been killed in retaliatory attacks.

In response, Israel is rapidly constructing a fence – 5 metres (16ft) above ground, 1.5 metres below, reinforced with razor wire – along its border with the Sinai peninsula. It has also relaxed its insistence on Egypt demilitarising the peninsula under the terms of the 1979 peace treaty between the two and has boosted its own military presence along the border.

Hostage-takings in the past month have included the kidnapping of 19 Egyptian border guards after the death in custody of a Bedouin man; 25 Chinese cement workers, held for four days; as well as separate incidents in the south involving two US and three Korean tourists who were visiting St Catherine's monastery. All were subsequently released unharmed. But in Sharm el-Sheikh, a French tourist was shot dead and four others injured last month in an armed robbery at a bureau de change.

Many observers say lawlessness and anarchy has soared, particularly in northern Sinai, since Mubarak fell a year ago. But the region has long been semi-detached from the rest of Egypt and largely beyond the iron grip of its security forces.

It has suffered from chronic under-investment in education, health and transport. Its inhabitants are among the poorest in Egypt. Added to the potent mix of poverty, alienation and tribal loyalties is a sizeable Palestinian population in the north of the peninsula, with family, political and economic connections to Gaza.

In the south, massive investment since the 1990s in upscale resorts in the former Bedouin fishing village of Sharm el-Sheikh, and a programme to create a "Red Sea Riveria" along the coast, has further alienated the Bedouin.

The resorts, aimed at wealthy Cairenes and foreign tourists from Europe, the Gulf States and – until a series of bomb attacks in 2004-06 – Israel, rarely offer jobs to Bedouin, preferring to import Egyptian labour from Cairo and other Egyptian cities.

"This is the land of the Bedouin, but the hotel owners don't want any Bedouin in their hotels. Even the women are not allowed to sell beads on the beach," said 20-year-old Fedayah Rebabah in Nuweiba.

Many of the international chain hotels offer all-inclusive packages, ensuring that tourist cash does not find its way into local pockets. Locals have been largely restricted to offering "Bedouin experiences" of camel rides and tea-brewing to tourists.

The Egyptian tourism authority has allocated land along the coast for resort development, pushing the Bedouin into smaller enclaves or further inland to the desert. And many of the tribes are now demanding compensation for land which they say historically belongs to them.

"Aqua-Sun is on Tarabeen land," said Sheikh Amsalaam Faraj, 42, while adding that he and other senior tribesmen were angry at the seizure of property at the resort, which he blamed on "crazy people" within the tribe. "This is not the right way to do things. This has made a problem for the whole area." Tarabeen leaders were working a deal to resolve the crisis, he said.

Ayman Moeed, manager of Aqua-Sun, said its owners were effectively being asked to pay for the land twice. He said security was a big problem: the Egyptian army "is not here very much" and the police have little authority over the Bedouin.

But the main change, he said by phone from Cairo, was the revolution. "In the Mubarak era, there was a strong government and the Bedouin were kept in a box. They didn't say anything or do anything. But now they have freedom to do what they want. The Bedouin are the power now, and they're trying to take the land."

Suleiman Rebabah, 24, and his cousin Salama el-Fahd, 38, agree the Bedouin have felt more powerful and assertive since Mubarak's departure. "Now you can go everywhere," said El Fahd. "For work, it is worse [since the revolution] but for freedom, it is better," said Rebabah.

Back at the Aqua-Sun, another deadline for a deal passed last Friday without a resolution. According to Moeed, it was down to "the big men of the Tarabeen" to broker a compromise over the property. For now, the plundered resort remains deserted behind padlocked gates.

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• Hosni Mubarak
• Israel
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Harriet Sherwood




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